It is official! The Nintendo 3DS will be launching March 27th with a price tag of: $249.99?! Too high? Too low? I really don’t know.

Nintendo is being fairly coy on what games will be out on launch day. We know there is a 30 game launch window spanning roughly 3 months. So the 3DS doesn’t have as much of a launch date as it does a launch window. Gaming hardware–no matter how technologically groundbreaking it is–is of little use if there’s no games for it to play.

I’d feel pretty safe betting the house that Nintendo isn’t going to drop the price shortly after launch so we’re stuck with this price until the holidays at earliest. And even then I doubt a price drop will happen. Maybe holiday 2012. So deciding if the 3DS is worth it based on a reduced price is a moot discussion. And without knowing the launch titles, it is a moot point discussing whether it’ll be worth it on launch day.

So, I’m going to judge it’s worthiness through the launch window and assume that Nintendo will live up to their word and release all the games they plan to in those 3 months. Based on past history, we can be pretty sure that some games will fall through the cracks–especially first party Nintendo ones. A good deal are just remakes of older games so there is a lesser chance of delays.

3DS 125% Better Than the Wii?

The most obvious oddity–for a Nintendo product–is that a handheld gaming device is going to cost more than the home console. Is there a logical reason to why this is strange? Not really. There’s just been no historical precedent–that I know of–by Nintendo. Granted, there’s also no precedent for glasses-free 3D games so, precedence doesn’t account for much here.

The worth of a $250 3DS is in the eye of the beholder–and that beholder will need both eyes working. The most die hard Nintendo fan will be in line for the 3DS on launch day’s eve. There’s no stopping them. They are going to get their hands on it come hell or high water. These are sales Nintendo can confidently expect.

The real question is whether everyone else will pay $250 for a portable gaming device. The launch window titles suggest that Nintendo is aiming broadly. This isn’t the Wii launch where they clearly aimed for the less serious consumer. There are some serious games in this launch window like the Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D–or what I’d call the Greatest Game Ever Made 3D–and Resident Evil: The Mercenaries 3D plus games like Animal Crossing and Nintendogs + Cats.

This is a broad spectrum, bait for everyone kind of launch.

For the more serious mobile gaming consumer, there are no other products coming soon to compete with their game buying dollars. The holidays have passed and no one else is launching new hardware. This price tag will be easier to swallow for them. There’s also enough games for this audience to justify the purchase: Resident Evil, Madden NFL, Street Fighter, and Splinter Cell to name a few and all in eye popping 3D! This audience isn’t just drawn to franchises they know but, also the magical new technologies that these games pioneer.

The real test of this price point’s success is going to lie with the less serious mobile gamer. Nintendo knows that they are competing with Apple. The iPod Touch is $229. Not very different price wise but, there’s enough apps in the Games category alone to drown Nintendo several times over. Nintendo isn’t a game factory and the App Store model is going to win in sheer magnitude every time.

Can the adorableness of Nintendogs + Cats, the coziness of Animal Crossing, and the often irresistible charm of Mario be enough to entice the less serious gaming consumer to shell out close to $300–3DS and a game–compared to $250–iPod Touch, Propaganda Lander, and a handful of other games and apps?

It is honestly too close to call.

Bottom Line

It is entirely unlike me to avoid making a stand but, I am torn myself! I am not a serious mobile gamer. I may not even be a casual mobile gamer. I do not mobile game. I have a DS. I have an iPhone. I don’t play games on either with any regularity. I am a Nintendo fan and the glasses-free 3D is exciting. I haven’t seen it in action so I can’t judge if the product is as mind blowing as I want to think it is. And I can’t make a stand based solely on my imagination.

I am sure that Nintendo will sell a lot of 3DS units. There is little doubt that there will be impressive numbers during the launch window. If there aren’t, Nintendo’s PR team will spin some up. However, I cannot confidently forecast the success of the device 6 months after launch and into the holidays. The launch itself is going to play a large role in building anticipation for the product during the holidays.

It might seem like the holidays are far away in March but, a poor launch will be anything but helpful if Nintendo wants to share stories of 3DS inventory shortages 8 months later.

I was sure of the success of the DS and the Wii. I don’t have that same sense of certainty now which may be telling but, I can’t bring myself to damn the product and the price. I will forecast a successful launch. Everything else I leave to the gods.

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Tags: 3ds, apple, ipod touch, nintendo, nintendo 3ds